范式与路径：宁夏产业结构调整

产业结构是影响经济持续发展的要素之一。本文从产业结构调整的一般范式和宁夏区域禀赋两个维度出发,通过对宁夏（2007年-2010年）的GDP产业构成、增速、产业周期、周边区域产业结构、节能约束、外部性等指标进行分析,认为宁夏的产业结构目前不均衡,需要调整。基于宁夏的资源禀赋提出：控制性发展主导产业（重工业和建筑业）,以主导产业带动特色产业（清真产业、特色生态农业、现代物流业、能源“金三角”内服务业）,让特色产业成为主导产业,通过带动调整,特色主导的调整路径,最终形成适合宁夏区情的产业结构。     

基于产业波及效果分析的新疆产业结构调整

本文利用新疆2007年投入产出表,计算并分析反映产业波及效果的影响力系数和感应度系数,进而阐述了新疆各产业的连锁或波及状况;最后提出了促进新疆产业结构调整与优化升级的建议。     

我国商业银行资本管理新趋势对金融市场发展的影响

为吸取美国次贷金融危机的教训,一系列资本监管改革制度于2010年取得国际共识并逐步付诸实施。我国商业银行资本管理将呈现新的趋势,并影响到金融市场的发展：股票融资吸引力将上升,债券融资将有所萎缩,贷款转让、资产证券化市场将迎来新的发展机遇,信用债市场结构将面临调整。     

The roles of multiple channels in predicting website visits and purchases: Engagers versus closers

In today’s online environment, consumers and sellers interact through multiple channels such as email, search engines, banner ads, affiliate websites and comparison-shopping websites. In this paper, we investigate whether knowing the history of channels the consumer has used until a point of time is predictive of their future visit patterns and purchase conversions. We propose a model in which future visits and conversions are stochastically dependent on the channels a consumer used on their path up to a point. Salient features of our model are: (1) visits by consumers are allowed to be clustered, which enables separation of their visits into intra- and inter-session components, (2) interaction effects between channels where prior visits and conversions from channels impact future inter-session visits, intra-session visits and conversions through a latent variable reflecting the cumulative weighted inventory of prior visits, (3) each channel attracts inter-session and intra-session visits differently, (4) each channel has different association with conversion conditional on a customer’s arrival to the website through that channel, (5) each channel engages customers differently (i.e., keeps the customer alive for a next session or for a next visit within a session), (6) the channel from which there was an arrival in the previous session can have an enhanced ability to generate an arrival for the same channel in the current session (channel persistence), and (7) parsimonious specification for high dimensionality in a low-velocity, sparse-data environment. We estimate the model on easy-to-collect first-party data obtained from an online retailer selling a durable good and find that information on the identities of channels and incorporation of inter- and intra-session visits have significant predictive power for future visitation and conversion behavior. We find that some channels act as “closers” and others as “engagers”—consumers arriving through the former are more likely to make a purchase, while consumers arriving through the latter, even if they do not make a purchase, are more likely to visit again in the future or extend the current session. We also find that some channels engage customers more than others, and that there are interaction effects between the channels visited. Our estimates show that the effect of prior inventory of visits is different from the immediate prior visit, and that visit and purchase probabilities can increase or decrease based on the history of channels used. We discuss several managerial implications of the model including using the predictions of the model to aid in selecting customers for marketing actions and using the model to evaluate a policy change regarding the obscuring of channel information.     

全球视角下的中国工业转型升级制约因素分析

国内外经济环境的变化迫使中国工业转型升级,然而在经济全球的时代,中国工业转型升级除了面临内需空间不足、创新收益不高、人才往行政部门流动和教育支撑不够等问题,还受到发达国家振兴制造业战略、技术封锁、迫使人民币升值和跨国公司在华市场竞争的制约。     

英国《气候变化法》的出台及其减排路线图

2008年11月26日英国《气候变化法》最终经女王批准形成法律,使英国成为世界上第一个将温室气体减排目标以法律形式确定下来的国家。论述了该法出台的过程、主要内容及其出台的背后原因,并分析出英国未来减排的路线图。这些结论对我国未来对气候变化有很好的参考价值。     

温州龙湾区传统产业集聚发展路径研究

温州龙湾区历来是温州的工业大区和经济强区,其产业集聚的形成和发展,是温州整个工业经济发展的缩影,因而具有普遍性和代表性。本文以产业集聚形成和发展的内生机制为切入点,在分析温州龙湾区产业集聚发展的历史和现状基础上,提出本区产业集聚发展的路径选择。     

论文化差异对中美商务谈判的影响

全球化已经成功地把世界上各个国家紧密连接成为一个动态的整体。中美两国间的经贸往来飞速发展,双方商务谈判越来越频繁,因此,两国谈判者了解中美文化的差异就显得十分重要。中国与美国之间的文化差异对商务谈判的影响很大,必须正确处理商务谈判过程中出现的文化差异问题。     

建立存款保险制度对地方性金融机构的影响研究——以延边州农村金融机构为例

建立存款保险制度是成熟市场经济国家的通行做法，我国存款保险立法的步伐也正在加紧。建立存款保险制度对地方性金融机构到底有何影响，本文以延边州农村金融机构为例，通过定性定量分析，提出若干建议，以期既能保证存款保险制度的适时推出，又尽可能减少政策对地方性金融机构的震动。     

西南地区环境空气质量影响因素研究

环境问题是目前国内外关注的热点问题,我国经济的粗放型增长对环境已造成一定损坏。西南地区近年经济增长迅速,保护环境甚至提高环境质量势在必行,因此本文以西南地区的空气质量为研究对象,根据现有统计数据资料,对西南地区的空气质量影响因素作统计分析。